Khalil Matar

Egypt is going through a historic upheaval. This the least that can be said about the constant political demonstrations, the inability of the emerging political parties and movements to put a transitional plan for the country in place, and the confusion of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) as to how it should deal with current events and create a stable democracy.

Every Friday demonstrators take to the street with a new slogan. The latest was: Reclaiming the Revolution. Under that slogan, most political parties in Egypt expressed their fear that SCAF is acting as if it will stay in power for some time. SCAF is accused of restoring policies of the Mubarak regime, prolonging the current political instability, and failing to implement the demands of the “revolution”. Some, such as columnist Amre Allaithi, claimed in the Egyptian daily Al-Masry Al-Youm, “The revolution needs a revolution to correct its path.”

The Egyptians are weary of Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi. Some think he will not turn against his old boss citing his testimony in the Mubarak trial. Tantawi failed to point a finger at the former president for ordering demonstrators to be shot at in January and February. Others see his visit to Tahrir Square wearing civilian clothes as taking after Mubarak when he took off his tie and went on an American style reelection campaign in 2005.

Tantawi and most members of the Military Council realize they will have to give up power. They realize they will not be the rulers of Egypt for long and that they will have to hold parliamentary and presidential elections. In general, they are decent men. However, they are afraid to hold elections because they know they will likely result in the Moslem Brotherhood and their allies assuming power. The Brotherhood threatened bloodshed if they were prevented, by law or action, from winning the elections. More liberal parties are pressing for laws that will give them a chance in the face of the more organized Islamists. SCAF is in a quagmire.

However, the most important event that reflects Tantawi’s fears, and those of many other members of SCAF, is the picture taken of Mubarak inside a cage. The Marshal is afraid he may face the same fate if he gives up power. He knows that the Attorney General in Egypt is so afraid of the demonstrators that he has been responding irrationally to any report of corruption by jailing the accused for a renewable term of fifteen days. After all, Tantawi was an important figure in that regime. He might have benefitted financially through corruption the same way other major figures did including present and past members of the Military Council. The Egyptian military turned to local business investments as its primary activity after the peace treaty with Israel sidelined it as a fighting force by leaving it with no important enemy on its borders.

Many Egyptians who know and have dealt with the members of SCAF describe them as apolitical. They are military officers who have no vision for the future of a country with the size and influence of Egypt. It is easy to persuade one of them to accept your point of view, until they meet the next persuasive person. Their malleability might be due to the fact that Mubarak appointed officers who have no ambitions in an effort to secure his rule

Tantawi and his generals refused to shoot at the demonstrators in January and February.. He ordered his soldiers to take to the streets without ammunition, which they received only after Mubarak was forced to resign. Though many look at this decision favorably, some think the military went to the street strictly to protect its interests. Today, the ineffectiveness of Egypt’s inexperienced new political powers presents a conflict that may endanger the military’s interest in the long term if they end up taking over the economic installations the armed forces control.

Furthermore, some of the new political powers claim SCAF is out to either steal, or void, the achievements of the “revolution” along with the Moslem Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and, most importantly, the United States.

The military has been in power longer than Mubarak. Since 1952, the armed forces have been the main pillar of any regime in Egypt. It will be extremely hard to convince them they should give up power. The “revolution” will eventually want to achieve that, as a democracy can not prevail and survive with generals controlling many aspects of life. Even in Turkey, the current government had to wrestle power from the military in order to rule through a civilian institution.

One Egyptian told me, “The military in Egypt is like a rich lady’s puppy. The puppy eats the best food, wears the best outfits, and is walked with an expensive leash. While getting all of this preferential treatment it will protect the lady. Once the lady stops providing, the puppy will become an enraged beast and may bite its owner.”

Egypt needs a strong ruler whot will be able to persuade the “street” to calm down. It needs a leader who has a vision and strategic plan and who won’t use force against their citizens. All of their decisions will be in the name of restoring some type of normalcy and leading the country toward democracy. In this region, it takes the moral force of a military officer to implement these changes. An officer who knows he will have to hand over power to civilians without the fear of being arrested or killed afterwards and one who understands the difference between using military force and violence, and using firm, strategic, and peaceful persuasion. They need an officer who knows how to treat this puppy and train it to live without the rich lady for its master. Unfortunately, the current Egypt and SCAF are still waiting for one of these.

October 02 2011